[SMM Construction Material Inventory] Total Inventory of Construction Materials Continues to Rise, But the Increase Has Narrowed

This week, the total inventory of construction steel continued to increase, but the overall growth rate narrowed. Rebar inventory rose 3.47% WoW, while wire rod inventory increased 6.04% WoW. Supply side, most blast furnace steel mills maintained normal production, and EAF steel mills gradually resumed operations after the Lantern Festival. According to an SMM survey, 74% of electric furnace mills in the sample have resumed production. This week, the operating rate of electric furnace mills was 33.16%, up 25.96% WoW, leading to a slight increase in the overall supply of construction steel. Demand side, downstream construction sites gradually resumed work, but overall demand recovery fell short of expectations, with the market remaining cautious.

This week, total rebar inventory reached 7.9316 million mt, up 266,300 mt WoW, an increase of 3.47% (previous value +15.93%). YoY, it decreased by 3.9535 million mt, a YoY decline of 33.26% (previous value -30.19%).

Table-1: Overview of Rebar Inventory

Source: SMM

This week, in-plant rebar inventory was 2.4143 million mt, up 26,700 mt WoW, an increase of 1.12% (previous value 7.91%). YoY, it decreased by 1.1286 million mt, a YoY decline of 31.86% (previous value -29.04%). Currently, most blast furnace steel mills maintain normal production, while EAF steel mills have gradually resumed operations. This week, the operating rate of electric furnaces increased by 25.96% WoW, leading to higher construction steel supply and an accumulation in in-plant inventory.

Chart-1: Rebar In-Plant Inventory Trends, 2021-2025

Source: SMM

This week, rebar social inventory reached 5.5173 million mt, up 239,600 mt WoW, an increase of 4.54% (previous value +19.97%). YoY, it decreased by 2.8249 million mt, a YoY decline of 33.86% (previous value -30.69%). Although downstream operations have gradually resumed, market demand recovery still fell short of expectations. Social inventory continued to accumulate, but the growth rate narrowed.

Chart-2: Rebar Social Inventory Trends, 2021-2025

Source: SMM

Overall, supply side, most EAF steel mills have gradually resumed operations after the Lantern Festival, while blast furnace steel mills maintained normal production, leading to a slight increase in the overall supply of construction steel. Demand side, downstream operations are gradually resuming, but demand recovery still requires time. This week, construction steel inventory increased, but the growth rate narrowed. With major meetings approaching, market speculation is heating up. Attention should be focused on the recovery of demand. Steel inventory is expected to increase slightly next week.